Rethinking the analysis framework of wind power industry: with the gradual weakening of the looting effect, the analysis framework that only needs to focus on price adjustment policy in the past is no longer applicable. In this regard, we put forward a new set of analysis framework, first of all, the electricity price adjustment policy will still affect the industry demand for loading, but the pattern has changed compared to the previous. Secondly, the key factor affecting the industry demand is that the improvement of the power limit problem brings the utilization hours to improve the profitability of the stock power plant. In the end, distributed wind power and offshore wind power are also important forces to promote the growth of industry demand.


For two years, the wind power industry has been shrinking for two years, but we believe that the demand for wind power industry is basically bottomed out and the trend of recovery is clear. Mainly based on 1) the trend of the continuous improvement of the abandoned wind and power limit is clear, the six provinces in Hong Kong are expected to be liberalized gradually, thus contributing to the increment of the considerable installed capacity; 2) the continuous improvement of the abandoned wind and electricity limit, the improvement of the profitability of the operators, the increase of the investment power, and the further attracting private capital to participate in the wind power investment; 3) the weakening of environmental supervision and the influence of the construction cycle. The eastern and South market are expected to grow rapidly; 4) the current approval has not been built up to 100GW or more, and will be protected under the trigger conditions of electricity price reduction.


As an important part of national energy planning, the decentralized wind power will be promising in 13th Five-Year, and the development of the wind power will be broad, and it is expected to accelerate under the support and guidance of the policy. First, the distributed wind power is close to the load center, which is easy to close down, and is in line with the principle of wind power distribution based on near cancellation in 13th Five-Year. Secondly, the development potential of low wind speed area in China is huge, which provides a broad development space for the development of decentralized wind power; thirdly, the progress of technology brings about the improvement of power generation efficiency. At present, the decentralized project located in the low wind speed area also has better economy. Finally, the wind power project has a good economy, attracting more and more private capital to participate in the development of wind power projects.


Conclusion: Based on the above analysis framework, we predict that the installed capacity of the industry in the 2018-2020 years is 28GW, 35GW and 44GW, respectively, and the growth rates are 56%, 26% and 25% respectively.